Private-sector economists have sharply upgraded their expectations for Singapore's economy, raising the median 2026 growth forecast to 5 per cent from 3.5 per cent three months earlier, according to the Monetary Authority of Singapore's latest survey of professional forecasters released in early September.
What the survey is
The MAS survey of professional forecasters is a quarterly poll of economists at banks, research houses and other institutions. The responses, which covered 25 forecasters in the September round, represent a private-sector consensus rather than MAS's own official projection, and they are closely watched as a barometer of market sentiment on the economy.
The upgrade was one of the largest in recent survey rounds, reflecting how quickly the mood on Singapore's prospects brightened over the middle of the year. The June survey had penciled in a far more cautious 3.5 per cent, against a backdrop of global trade uncertainty that has since eased considerably.
A tech-driven rebound
Economists credited an AI-driven upturn in the global technology cycle as a key support for growth, feeding through to Singapore's electronics and semiconductor-heavy manufacturing base and the trade-related services that move goods through the city-state. Stronger-than-expected outturns in the first half of the year also forced forecasters to mark up their full-year numbers.
The forecast for the manufacturing sector was raised to 8.4 per cent for 2026, a substantial jump from the 5 per cent expected in the June survey. That revision captured the sector's role as the primary driver of the year's outperformance.
Inflation and the labour market
On prices, the survey pointed to contained inflation. Respondents put headline inflation for 2026 at a median of 2.1 per cent, down from 2.3 per cent in the previous survey, while core inflation was seen at 1.9 per cent, easing from 2 per cent. The year-end unemployment rate was expected to hold around 2.1 per cent, pointing to a still-tight labour market.
Looking further out, economists moderated their expectations for the following year, with the median 2027 growth forecast at 3.1 per cent. That implied a cooling from 2026's rapid pace as the technology cycle matures and base effects fade.
Lining up with the official view
The survey followed the government's own upgrade. In August, the Ministry of Trade and Industry raised its full-year 2026 growth forecast to a range of 4.5 to 5.5 per cent, so the forecasters' 5 per cent median sat comfortably within the official band. The alignment suggested broad agreement that the economy was on a firmer footing than feared at the start of the year.
The survey also captured expectations around monetary policy. A larger share of respondents, 45 per cent, anticipated that MAS might tighten at its October review, up from 30 per cent previously. In the event, MAS held its policy band unchanged in October, citing a cooler inflation outlook, so the tightening the survey had flagged as a possibility did not materialise.
The risks to the view
Even as they raised their numbers, economists flagged clear downside risks. The most-cited concern was a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East, which could drive energy prices higher, while a meaningful minority pointed to the danger of an AI investment bubble bursting and spilling over into financial markets and the real economy.
For now, though, the message from the survey is one of upgraded optimism. With growth tracking at the upper end of official forecasts and inflation expected to stay contained, Singapore looks set to close out 2026 on a strong note, provided the external risks that economists are watching do not crystallise.